Bruce Yandle: The Economic Situation - September 2009
By Bruce Yandle
Dean Emeritus, College of Business & Behavioral Science, Clemson University
Director, Strom Thurmond Institute Economic Outlook Project
September 2009
- The signs of a recession ending.
- GDP and clunkers. Does it make sense?
- Labor markets are improving…, slowly.
- How about the states? When will they recover?
- What’s hot and what’s not.
- Yes, brains and income go together.
- A few cheers for capitalism.
- South Carolina Digest
The signs of a recession ending
Robert Ariail’s cartoon offers more than a grain of truth in President Obama’s good news message. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July Employment Situation report indicated that the nation is shedding employment at a slower rate, and that may well be one of many signs that the 2007-09 recession has ended.
I am betting that when the experts set this recession’s closing date they will choose either August or September of 2009. This will make this recession the longest, but not the most painful, since 1948. But remember, the end of a recession means things will not get any worse. Getting better depends on recovery, and the road ahead looks pretty bumpy.
I enjoyed the article. I also appreciated the nod to capitalism and the Arthur Selden quote. One of the things I am not seeing in the general press and which you might consider touching upon in the future is the different forms of capitalism. I think it is imperative that people learn to distinguish between "free market" capitalism and "raw" capitalism. In a free market some rules are enforced to keep the markets free of barriers to entry and barriers to trade and barriers to sustainability (not just in the environmental sense), but also in the sense of protecting business continuity. Raw capitalism leads to Al Capones, and lesser (?) evils like Enron-type behaviors – which destroyed a lot more value than cash for clunkers (not an excuse, just an observation). If this recession reminds us of anything, it is that financial regulation is needed, and enforcement is needed. The rules are there to protect the players, not just the fans. As my father told me long ago, locks on cars are not to keep thieves out; they are to keep honest people honest. Thieves don’t care about locks. So it is with financial regulation, and I hope that’s a lesson learned of this past recession.